El nino 2023

Americas+1 212 318 2000 EMEA+44 20 7330 7500 Asia Pacific+65 6212 1000 • Company • • • • • • • • • Communications • • Follow • • • • • • Products • • • • • Industry Products • • • • • Media • • • • • • • • • • Media Services • • • Company • • • • • • • • • Communications • • Follow • • • • • • Products • • • • • Industry Products • • • • • • Media • • Technology • • • • Businessweek • • • • Media Services • • • Bloomberg Damaged corn in a drought-affected field in Lichtenburg, South Africa, in March 2015. Videographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg The world’s most potent climate phenomenon risks sparking a chain reaction of dangerous weather, food shortages and blackouts that can disrupt supply chains and stoke inflation. As the world struggles to recover from Covid-19 and Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on, the arrival of the first El Niño in almost four years foreshadows new damage to an already fragile global economy. The shift to a warming phase from the cooler La Niña can generate chaos, especially in fast-growing emerging economies. Power grids strain and blackouts become more frequent. Extreme heat creates public health emergencies, while drought adds to fire risks. Crops are lost, roads are flooded and homes are destroyed. According to Bloomberg Economics modeling, previous El Niños resulted in a marked impact on global inflation, adding 3.9 percentage points to non-energy commodity prices and 3.5 points to oil. They also hit growth to gross domestic product, especially...

Current state and predicitions of 2023/24 El Niño (A) The integral of the warm water volume (unit of m3) over the equatorial Pacific (120°E-80°W 5°S-5°N) in D(-1)JF(0) preceding every El Niño event since 1982, and in 2023. (B-C) The tropical Pacific sea surface temperature in D(-1)JF(0) 2023 and 1982. Data is from ORAS5. (D) Predictions of the NINO3.4 index from Mar 2023 when different number and type of high-frequency perturbations are added in MAMJ(0) 2023. Shading in (D) denotes the 95% bootstrap confidence level. Credit: Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research (OLAR) A team of researchers, using a state-of-the-art climate prediction system, is forecasting a strong El Niño toward the end of 2023. If westerly wind bursts were to occur during the spring and early summer, an even stronger El Niño event might occur. Their study was published in the journal Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research on April 24. "The upper ocean heat content in the winter of 2022 ranks the largest over the past 40 years. Since the heat content serves as a primary precursor for an upcoming El Niño, we showed by a set of model experiments that within the low-frequency atmosphere-ocean coupling, the current heat content is sufficient for boosting a strong El Niño toward the end of 2023," said Tao Lian, a professor from the Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, China. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycle is the name scientists give to the strong, recurring climate pattern over the tropic...

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