El nino effect in india 2023

It is caused by ocean temperatures and winds in the Pacific that oscillate between warming El Niño and cooling La Niña. This year is already predicted to be hotter than 2022 and the fifth or sixth hottest year on record. The effects of El Niño take months to be felt and may mean 2024 breaks temperature records. • • The world's hottest year on record so far was 2016, coinciding with a strong El Niño - although climate change has fuelled extreme temperatures even in years without the phenomenon. The last eight years were the world's eight hottest on record - reflecting the longer-term warming trend driven by greenhouse gas emissions. El Niño can cause flooding in parts of the US. David J. Phillip/AP El Niño pushes warm water in the Pacific Ocean eastwards, causing the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. This produces dryer and warmer weather in northern US and intense rainfall and flooding in the US Gulf Coast and Southeast. In Europe, it can lead to colder, drier winters in the north and wetter winters in the south. During the phenomenon, the global temperature increases by around 0.2 degrees Celsius, according to NOAA. This could mean breaking the crucial 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming limit. • • As a result, the world will face more intense heatwaves, prolonged hot seasons and more powerful storms. The first places to feel the effects will be countries close to the Pacific, like the west coast of the Americas, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. In...

El-Nino refers to the warming of the ocean surface, resulting in above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming effect triggers changes in atmospheric patterns, leading to a weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent. Consequently, the Indian monsoon tends to be weaker and less reliable during El-Nino years. Historically, India has experienced below-average rainfall during most El-Nino years, sometimes resulting in severe drought conditions that devastate crops and necessitate restrictions on food grain exports. The potential impact of the El-Nino effect on India's agricultural sector and water resources raises concerns for the country's overall well-being. GP Sharma said, "...Things are looking a little worse to me. Monsoon should behave well so it will be good for the country, but then looking at the conditions which are there, it doesn't seem to be so." He added, "We have given 94 percent; plus-minus 5 percent. We have gone up to even 90 percent; for 60 percent of chance, we have given in the forecast for below normal and drought."

On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Weather Service updated the ENSO Alert System Status and issued an 'El Niño' Advisory. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there is a 56 per cent chance that when El Nino peaks in strength-- normally during the Northern Hemisphere winter--it will be a strong event, meaning that Eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures are at least 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than normal. The World Meteorological Organization in a recent statement warned that the likelihood of El Niño developing later this year was increasing. "There is a 60 per cent chance for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño during May-July 2023, and this will increase to about 70 per cent in June-August and 80 per cent between July and September,” according to an update which is based on input from WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts and expert assessment. WMO Secretary-General Prof Petteri Taalas stated, “We just had the eight warmest years on record, even though we had a cooling La Niña for the past three years and this acted as a temporary brake on global temperature increase. The development of an El Niño will most likely lead to a new spike in global heating and increase the chance of breaking temperature records.” What is El Niño? According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-centra...

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has predicted thatEl Nino conditions will likely begin in the middle of 2023. In an update March 9, 2023, NOAA predicted that El Nino could arrive as early as July or August 2023. La Nina and El Nino together form a climate cycle that has an immense impact on weather and ocean conditions across the globe. During El Nino, the waters in the east and central equatorial Pacific experience abnormal warming which is the opposite of La Nina where the region experiences anomalous cooling. Together, these two phenomena affect ocean currents, fish populations and wind flows. They also often result in more rainfall in some parts of the world while triggering droughts in others. The US agencies have noted that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is warming up slowly and the Nino region indices are returning to neutral status marking the end of La Nina years. The trend has been that each phase is observed by a year or two of neutral conditions before the next one begins. But this year thethree-year-long La Nina is expected to be quickly followed by El Nino. The beginning of the El Nino is a harbinger of bad news for India’s agriculture. El Ninos are generally linked with poor southwest monsoon rains across India as observed in previous El Nino years of 2009, 2014, 2015 and 2018. The poor monsoons due to El Nino will also impact India’s Kharif crop output and agriculture sector. Although the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is yet...

India has had four consecutive years of good monsoons and overall rainfall from 2019 to 2022. In these four years, the country as a whole received an average area-weighted rainfall of 1,268 millimetres (mm) annually and 933.1 mm over the four-month southwest monsoon season (June-September). By contrast, the preceding five years from 2014 to 2018 – roughly coinciding with the first term of the The surplus precipitation – more than the “normal” or historical long period annual average of 1,160.1 mm and 868.6 mm for the monsoon season – during the last four years has helped deliver higher agricultural growth, relative to the previous period that recorded poor rain in three (2014, 2015 and 2018) out of the five years (see the table below). According to the national accounts data, the farm sector has grown by an average of 4.3% per year during 2019-20 to 2022-23 (the Modi government’s second term), as against 3.2% during 2014-15 to 2018-19. The La Niña bounty The bountiful rainfall during 2019-22 has been significantly attributed to La Niña – an atmospheric wind and sea surface temperature (SST) variability phenomenon occurring over the equatorial Pacific, but causing worldwide weather disruptions. Click here for more La Niña basically refers to an abnormal cooling of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean waters off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru. Such cooling (SSTs falling 0.5 degrees Celsius or more below a 30-year average for at least five successive three-month periods) is ...