Southwest monsoon 2023

Southwest Monsoon 2023 has finally arrived over mainland India. The onset of monsoon has been seen over Kerala and some areas of Tamil Nadu along with rest of South Arabian Sea, entire Lakshadweep, rest of Comorin and many parts of Bay of Bengal. One week delay from its scheduled arrival of 01st June was very evident but cyclone Biparjoy stalled it further. This has been the most delayed monsoon in the last 4 years. Earlier, in 2003 and 2019, the southwest monsoon landed over Kerala on 08th June. Before this, the southwest monsoon had arrived on 09th June 1997. The most delayed monsoon since 1971 happens to be 18th June 1972, and it was a severe drought with a seasonal record shortfall of 24% rainfall. The earliest arrival of this annual event was on 18th May 2004. Coincidentally, that year also ended up with moderate drought registering a seasonal deficit of 14% rainfall. This only goes on to prove that arrival of the monsoon has little correlation with its overall performance. The other factors largely prevail. Southwest Monsoon 2023 is likely to make a soft start. Initial progress may itself be sluggish. Bursts of monsoon may not be adequate and as desired. Annual felicitating event is facing a double whammy of ‘Biparjoy’ and evolving El Nino. While the powerful cyclone is sapping the moisture of the monsoon stream striking the Kerala coast, the uncanny El Nino is troubling the ‘take off’ of anxiously awaited eccentric events. The onset of monsoon has stringent criteria...

Monsoon season starts this Thursday, but desert dwellers might have to wait a while longer for the actual rain to roll in. “At this point, I’m not expecting a total monsoon bust. This looks a little different,” said University of Arizona climatologist Mike Crimmins. “But I am preparing myself for a late start.” The Southwest monsoon season officially begins on June 15 and lasts through September, though weather data from the past 80 years shows Tucson often doesn’t see its first storm activity until early July. Crimmins said a “weird trough of low pressure hanging around” in recent weeks has kept Tucson's temperatures in the double digits for the most part, but it has also prevented the formation of the high pressure ridge that helps give rise to our monsoon storms. That ridge typically forms in southern Mexico and gradually works its way up to us. So far, though, there has been no sign of it, Crimmins said. “It can’t jump over Mexico. It really has to start there and build north.” Twin bolts hit the southern slopes of the Rincon Mountains as a monsoon storm rolled in over Vail on Aug. 6, 2022. Kelly Presnell, Arizona Daily Star Below-normal rainfall predicted The latest seasonal forecast from the Those precipitation and temperature forecasts both suggest the possibility of a late-developing monsoon pattern, though the farther out such weather predictions get, the less accurate they tend to be. “This could all go down the tubes,” said Crimmins, who is a professor and exten...

We live in arguably the most beautiful desert in the world, the Sonoran Desert, which stretches from Central Arizona down into Mexico. Under normal weather conditions, the Sonoran Desert experiences hot temperatures and very dry heat, but once the summer monsoon rolls around, temperatures drop and our humidity and dew point rise. Annie Kwartler A monsoon is defined as any wind that reverses its direction seasonally. In late June and early July, the wind patterns to our south over Mexico begin to shift. Winds flow out of the south and southeast, bringing in moisture from the Pacific Ocean, the Gulf of California and the Gulf of Mexico. That moisture rises with our intense summer heat and produces thunderstorms across Arizona. These monsoon storms can produce heavy rain, dust storms, lightning, strong winds and flash floods. In previous years, we tracked dew point temperatures to see when enough moisture had arrived to call it the monsoon. The average start date was July 7, usually lasting through mid-September. Now, the National Weather Service has set specific dates to our "monsoon season". It begins each year on June 15 and lasts until September 30. While our summer monsoon can be exciting and even beautiful, storms can pop up quickly and cause major damage. Early notice is key to saving lives and property, so count on the ABC15 Forecasters to take action to keep you and your family safe this summer with the power of ABC15 Desert Doppler radar.

With summer just weeks away, AccuWeather’s long-range forecasters have released their summer forecast. Find out what they’re forecasting for your area. Millions of people across the United States have already had a taste of summer weather, and at 10:57 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, June 21, the season will officially get underway. For some, the first taste of summerlike warmth arrived much earlier than normal, including in Washington, D.C., where the temperature hit 84 degrees Fahrenheit on March 23, the same day the capital's famous cherry blossoms reached peak bloom, which was about While the official start of summer is still weeks away, One month, in particular, stands out to AccuWeather meteorologists. "Our team has concerns about July, which can feature many high-impact events like severe weather, wildfires, significant drought and flooding," Pastelok said. Will it be a hot summer? When will be the best time to head to the beach? Will lawnmowers get a workout this summer? AccuWeather has the answers to these questions and more in the exclusive U.S. summer forecast. Northeast, Midwest face rain, storms before heat swells A two-sided summer is in the cards for most of the Midwest and Northeast this year, with the weather patterns expected to completely flip part of the way through the season. Similar to last year, the Midwest and Northeast could experience a wet and stormy start to the summer before drier conditions take over in August. As a result, people may have to mow thei...

The onset date of the Southwest Monsoon over Kerala this year is expected on 07thJune with an error margin of +/- 3 days. The onset will be delayed and the advancement slightly sluggish over Peninsular India. Hot weather will continue deep into June this year over central and northern parts of the country. This may not augur well for Kharif sowing. A powerful cyclone 'FABIEN' is moving over the South Indian Ocean in the equatorial latitudes, abeam Southern Peninsula. The hurricane-strength weather system will take nearly one week to clear the area. This monster storm is restricting the cross-equatorial flow and the build-up of the Monsoon stream. Also, the Arabian Sea continues to host an anticyclone over the central parts in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This acts as a deterrent for the smooth streaming of Monsoon flow from the Arabian Sea to the West Coast. Other pertinent features are also not likely to get aligned with the desired wind pattern over the next 10 days or even more. There are no visible signs of establishing typical low-level jet (LLJ) of westerly winds, considered essential for the onset of Monsoon. The mainland onset of Monsoon has a standard deviation of 7 days. In the last 10 years, the earliest arrival was on 29th May in 2018 & 2022 and the most delayed on 08thJune 2019. The CFS-based weather modelssuggest strengthening of cross-equatorial flow and sea conditions supporting monsoon surge around 07th June 2023. A lag of +/- 3 days thereafter is q...

Tuesday, April 11: Now that the countrywide temperatures have gradually begun rising, many pluviophiles have already started yearning for the respite that only monsoon rains can provide. Alas, the monsoon season is at least two months away still, although an early indication of its expected performance has now been provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). In its long-range forecast released on Tuesday afternoon, the IMD has predicted the southwest monsoon rains to be ‘normal’. The seasonal precipitation during the four-month period between June to September is expected to be 96% (with a model error of ± 5%) of the long-period average, which amounts to 83.5 cm. The countrywide seasonal average, calculated for the period 1971-2020, is 87 cm. Interestingly, this is the fifth straight year of normal or above-normal rainfall predictions for the monsoon season. This spells good news for India, as normal rain is crucial for sufficient agricultural yield and the replenishing of reservoirs critical for drinking water and power generation across the country. Terclie probability rainfall forecast for the 2023 southwest monsoon season (India Meteorological Department) The forecasted spatial distribution hints at normal to above-normal rainfall activity in many parts of Northeast, South Peninsular and adjoining East-Central India, along with some parts of Northwest India. On the flip side, normal to below-normal seasonal precipitation has been predicted in parts of West-C...