El nino news

SO PLEASE GIVE THEM LOTS OF SPACE. THE PHRASE EL NINO HAS BECOME VERY POPULAR AGAIN AFTER FORECASTERS WITH NOAA DECLARED ITS ARRIVAL IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. SOME PEOPLE ARE NOW ASKING IF CALIFORNIA IS IN FOR ANOTHER WET WINTER. METEOROLOGIST HEATHER WALDMAN JOINING US NOW WITH THE DETAILS ON THAT. HEATHER, CAN THAT KIND OF PREDICTION BE MADE THIS FAR OUT? WELL, THE SHORT ANSWER IS NO, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE SOME CONNECTIONS BETWEEN THE EL NINO CYCLE AND THE COMING WINTER SEASON, BUT THERE’S ALSO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. WE FORECASTERS WITH NOAA’S CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER DETERMINE THE START OF EL NINO LAST WEEK BY ANSWERING THREE MAIN QUESTIONS. THE FIRST IS WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WARMER THAN AVERAGE. SECOND IS LIKELY TO STAY WARMER FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. AND FINALLY, ARE THERE CLEAR CHANGES TO STORM PATTERNS IN THE TROPICS? LAST WEEK, THE ANSWER WAS YES. FOR ALL THREE OF THOSE QUESTIONS, MEANING THAT EL NINO IS HERE, YOU CAN SEE THE DIFFERENCE IN WATER TEMPERATURES HERE ON THESE TWO MAPS. THIS WAS JANUARY OF 2023. THIS WAS JUNE OF 2023. AND FORECASTERS PAY SPECIFIC ATTENTION TO THIS BOX HERE AND THEY BELIEVE THAT WATER IN THAT ZONE WILL CONTINUE WARMING THROUGH SUMMER AND INTO THE FALL AS OF TODAY, THERE’S A 56% CHANCE FOR A STRONG EL NINO THIS WINTER, BUT THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE, 84% FOR A MORE MODERATE EL NINO PATTERN. FORECASTERS WITH SACRAMENTO’S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE SAY THAT GIVEN THIS OUTLOOK, IT’S STILL VER...

It formed a month or two earlier than most El Ninos do, which “gives it room to grow,” and there’s a 56% chance it will be considered strong and a 25% chance it reaches supersized levels, said climate scientist Michelle L’Heureux, head of NOAA’s El Nino/La Nina forecast office. “If this El Nino tips into the largest class of events ... it will be the shortest recurrence time in the historical record,” said Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Brown University. Such a short gap between El Ninos leaves communities with less time to recover from damages to infrastructure, agriculture, and ecosystems like coral reefs. Usually, an El Nino mutes hurricane activity in the Atlantic, giving relief to coastal areas in states from Texas to New England, Central America and the Caribbean, weary from recent record busy years. But this time, forecasters don’t see that happening, because of Hurricanes strengthen and grow when they travel over warm seawater, and the tropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean are “exceptionally warm,” said Kristopher Karnauskas, associate professor at the University of Colorado Boulder. So this year, NOAA and others are predicting a In the past, a strong El Nino has led to record global warmth, like in 2016 and 1998. Scientists earlier this year had been saying “The onset of El Nino has implications for placing 2023 in the running for warmest year on record when combined with climate-warming background,” said University of Georgia meteorology professor Marshall She...

The natural climate system comes as the Pacific Ocean experiences "warmer-than-average" surface temperatures. When that happens — every two to seven year — the system returns, generally spawning more rainfall in South America, winter storms in the U.S. West and South and droughts across Asia. Michelle L'Heureux, a climate scientist at Forecasters at People in the U.S. won't feel the impacts of the phenomenon more strongly until the late fall through spring, NOAA says, but this year, it could be significant. Forecasters say there's a 56% chance of a "strong" El Niño and an 84% chance of a moderate system developing, roughly the same estimate that was

That may sound ominous, but El Niño—Spanish for "the little boy"—is not malevolent, or even automatically bad. Here's what forecasters expect, and what it means for the U.S. What is El Niño? El Niño is a climate pattern that starts with warm water building up in the tropical Pacific west of South America. This happens every three to seven years or so. It might last Normally, the That warming at the equator during El Niño leads to the warming of the stratosphere, starting about 6.2 miles (10 kilometers) above the surface. Scientists are still studying how exactly this teleconnection occurs. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration explains teleconnections and the impact of El Niño At the same time, the lower tropical stratosphere cools. That combination can shift the upper-level winds known as the jet stream, which blow from west to east. Altering the jet stream can affect all kinds of weather variables, from temperatures to storms and winds that can tear hurricanes apart. Basically, what happens in the Pacific doesn't stay in the Pacific. So, what does all that mean for you and me? With apologies to Charles Dickens, El Niño tends to create a tale of two regions: the best of times for some, and the worst of times for others. On average, El Niño years tend to be warmer across the northern part of the U.S. and in Canada, and the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley are often drier than usual in the winter and fall. The Southwest, on the other hand, tends to be El Niño...

It formed a month or two earlier than most El Ninos do, which “gives it room to grow,” and there’s a 56% chance it will be considered strong and a 25% chance it reaches supersized levels, said “If this El Nino tips into the largest class of events … it will be the shortest recurrence time in the historical record,” said Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at Brown University. Such a short gap between El Ninos leaves communities with less time to recover from damages to infrastructure, agriculture, and ecosystems like coral reefs. Usually, an El Nino mutes hurricane activity in the Atlantic, giving relief to coastal areas in states from Texas to New England, Central America and the Caribbean, weary from recent record busy years. But this time, forecasters don’t see that happening, because of record hot Atlantic temperatures that would counteract the El Nino winds that normally decapitate many storms. Hurricanes strengthen and grow when they travel over warm seawater, and the tropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean are “exceptionally warm,” said Kristopher Karnauskas, associate professor at the University of Colorado Boulder. So this year, NOAA and others are predicting a near-average Atlantic hurricane season. In the past, a strong El Nino has led to record global warmth, like in 2016 and 1998. Scientists earlier this year had been saying next year is more likely to set a record heat, especially because El Ninos usually reach peak power in winter. But this El Nino started even ear...

A large section of the U.S. could see warmer temperatures than normal, NOAA said as it gave an update on current forecasts calling for an El Niño climate pattern. NOAA As hot as the Earth's weather has been in recent years, it's about to get hotter: El Niño is on the way, with warmer sea temperatures promising new weather extremes, U.S. and international forecasters say. For several years now, a persistent La Niña pattern in the equatorial Pacific Ocean has been easing some of the worst temperature rises, as well as shaking up precipitation patterns. But the "We just had the eight warmest years on record, even though we had a cooling La Niña for the past three years," WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said. In the U.S., the shift promises relief in other forms, as the outgoing La Niña is associated with more hurricane activity in the East and drought in the West. Here's a quick guide to these two influential climate patterns: They affect hurricanes and other weather El Niño usually brings a quieter Atlantic hurricane season and more hurricane activity in the Pacific, while La Niña does the opposite — a dynamic that the La Niña "There's a 62% chance that El Niño will develop during the May–July period, and more than 80% chance of El Niño by the fall," according to La Niña cools, and El Niño warms La Niña "acted as a temporary brake on global temperature increase," Taalas said. That's because the pattern occurs when sea surface temperatures are unusually cold and are fore...

El Niño is making its comeback – and making itself at home. National forecasters said on Thursday that the climate pattern system, known for bringing record rainfall in South America, more winter storms in the U.S West and South, and droughts in southern Asia, Indonesia and Australia, is expected to make its official return within a few months and has a strong chance of lasting the rest of the year. El Niño is a climate pattern that naturally occurs every two to seven years when ocean surface temperatures warm in the eastern Pacific. And according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, it will According to the latest ENSO Outlook from More on that + our scorching oceans at the ENSO Blog. There's an 80% chance the event will at least be moderate and about a 55% this year's El Niño will be "strong," NOAA said. There's also a 90% chance that El Niño will stay in the northern hemisphere throughout the winter. In South America, Peru, Chile and Ecuador are also known to experience record rainfall during El Niño years. And on the other side of the world, Australia, Indonesia and southern Asia will likely experience severe droughts. But that's not all. One of the biggest fuels of El Niño is warmer ocean waters, which can spur hurricanes in the Pacific, NOAA says, while also driving marine species to other areas in search of colder waters. Data from NOAA shows that since about mid-March – well before the beginning of El Niño – daily sea surface temperatures have al...

Early morning hikers rest before walking down Piestewa Peak, a city park in Phoenix, Ariz. El Niño makes a record-breaking average annual temperature for Earth more likely. Ryan Kellman/NPR hide caption toggle caption Ryan Kellman/NPR El Niño is officially here, and that means things are about to get even hotter. The natural climate phenomenon is marked by warmer ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which drives hotter weather around the world. "[El Niño] could lead to new records for temperatures," says Michelle L'Heureux, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. The hottest years on record But temperature superlatives obscure the bigger trend: the El Niño also exacerbates other effects of climate change. In the Northern United States and Canada, El Niño generally brings drier, warmer weather. That's bad news for Canada, which already had an abnormally hot Spring, and is grappling with widespread wildfires from Alberta all the way to the Maritimes in the East. In the Southern U.S., where climate change is making dangerously heavy rain storms more common, El Niño adds even more juice. That's bad news for communities where flash floods have destroyed homes and even killed people in recent years, and where drain pipes and stormwater infrastructure is not built to handle the enormous amounts of rain that now regularly fall in short periods of time. The one silver lining for U.S. residents? El Niño is not ...